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Test a rule change

Run note. From an earlier partial run: 21,497 parcels fit-tested (36 of 36), vs 118,960 in the other scenarios. Compare with them with care.

More homes allowed by right

+1,800 to 22,000, likely 4,300

vs. today’s code

Parcels newly buildable by right

1,700 to 1,800, likely 1,700

of 104,309 parcels a lever applies to

Likely to pencil at today’s prices

0 to 3,100, likely 170

homes · capacity is not production

New tax revenue at build-out

$0 to $27M, likely $1.8M

per year, all taxing bodies

Results updated. More homes allowed by right: 1,800 to 22,000 (likely 4,300). Parcels newly buildable: 1,700 to 1,800 (likely 1,700). Likely to pencil: 0 to 3,100 (likely 170) homes.

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The Where table lists the same parcels by neighborhood and council district, with every number as text.
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Where

29% of the new capacity falls in 5 neighborhoods: Squirrel Hill North, Brookline, Lincoln Place, Squirrel Hill South, Westwood. Homes that pencil at today’s prices (likely scenario) are in 4 neighborhoods: Crawford-Roberts (79), Middle Hill (51), Troy Hill (25), Bedford Dwellings (19). Elsewhere the pencil column is 0 because nearby new-construction prices don’t cover cost (construction plus the lot at assessed value); the high-price column shows where they could.

Homes added by right, by neighborhood: low end and upper bound
NeighborhoodParcels gainingNewly buildableHomes added, low end (no lot split)Homes added, upper bound (assumes lot splits)Share of upper boundPencil (likely)Pencil (high prices)Bar
Squirrel Hill North71863451,4997%018
Brookline88713131,2296%00
Lincoln Place82110101,2206%00
Squirrel Hill South6651351211,1915%050
Westwood81541391,1495%00
Point Breeze60191761,1315%0137
Carrick6231061069384%00
Stanton Heights7351671678844%0748
Banksville544228484%00
Shadyside39972517894%053
New Homestead38422227613%07
Crafton Heights36394945733%00
Lincoln-Lemington-Belmar40184835322%0501
Perry North35451505172%00
Beechview302544932%00
Overbrook246774582%00
Summer Hill233224292%00
Brighton Heights24110104252%00
Homewood North3532732744202%0366
Highland Park28622224122%00
Elliott20716143902%00
Spring Hill-City View18811113392%00
Windgap197993302%00
Swisshelm Park22331313181%0218
East Hills17825282621%0255
Chartiers City18112122581%00
Upper Hill2021261262571%00
Oakwood14210102331%00
Bon Air18515152231%00
Mount Washington962152211%00
Hazelwood126882191%00
Point Breeze North109662061%0141
Greenfield129441971%00
Sheraden101111861%00
North Oakland911711741%06
Arlington10438391641%00
Duquesne Heights70111591%00
Ridgemont88111591%00
Fineview8717161271%00
Spring Garden6420191151%0112

Showing the 40 neighborhoods with the most new capacity of 81. The CSV export lists every parcel that gains homes.

By council district

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These are the ends of the headline range, not the likely figure. Upper bound = every home the fit test finds, including townhouse rows that need a lot split (subdivision) first; it sums to 21,969. Low end = only homes that need no lot split; it sums to 1,758. The headline likely figure (4,300) is not stored per neighborhood or district. Neighborhood = City of Pittsburgh neighborhood the parcel sits in.